Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
